Chinese Communist Party
1921 - 2021
✮
In response to:
The strategic position of Russia is weak in the extreme. An invasion of Ukraine is likely to lead to a quagmire from which the Russian forces would not be able to extricate themselves. For the Western elites and for nationalist Ukraine, 'sacrificing' Ukraine will be the most logical and intelligent step, as it will create, indeed, a Vietnam type scenario and consolidate Ukrainian statehood through a War of Independence and a popular struggle that would break ties with Russia for good.
In spite of the Russian show of force, the military options are poor and defeat might bring another revolution to Russia, as traditionally, military defeats do. Even an 'occupation' of the Eastern side of Ukraine, is unlikely to solve the problem, as the Western part will become stronger through integration in the EU and improved military capabilities, ready to launch renewed attacks on the East. That is, perhaps, one of the reasons for Ukraine NOT to join or not to be allowed to join NATO, as it will need a free hand to attack the East without dragging NATO into a wider conflict.
The only option for Russia is to promote worldwide revolution again, but oligarchs do not make good revolutionaries.
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