Chinese Communist Party
1921 - 2021
✮
In response to:
https://www.rt.com/russia/544229-china-outstrip-us-economy/
President Putin is wrong. The relationship of the West with China, as opposed to Russia, is not antagonistic. China is, to a very high degree, a dependency of the West. The PRC has based and, in spite of its commendable efforts, still bases its development on the good will and connivence of the West. Thus, the PRC has been the main beneficiary of a purposeful policy of the Western elites to degrade its own working class through unfair competition and mass uncontrolled immigration. China's development is linked to exports markets in the West, the access to Western financial institutions, migration to the West and a massive Western transfer of technology to China.
That Western dependency of China is still ongoing and cannot and will be used by the West and, even more, by China. The danger for Russia is grave and, relatively, imminent. If the West (meaning the Western elites), decided to 'discipline' China, it could do it with ease and with considerable popular support, as they could stop immigration (very important for China and Chinese partners in the Third World as a mechanism to eliminate unemployment), stop Chinese cheap imports, forbid the transfer of technology and know-how and eliminate the unfair competition on which Chinese production is based. If that were to happen, China will fall, most likely, in another of her historical bouts of revolts and revolutions. The Western elites, of course, would like to avoid that as they flee revolution as the plague.
But 'revolution' is only one leverage at the disposal of the West. The most likely scenario will be a negotiation about Taiwan, that is, the West will offer and China will ask, for concessions in Taiwan, on the lines of Hong Kong, in exchange for Chinese neutrality or even hostility in Russia. Since for China the patriotic unification of its lands is one of the main driving forces of its entire society, it is likely that a deal will be struck, especially if the status quo on commerce and technology is maintained. In such a scenario, Russia would be unable to compete with the West for China. Paradoxically, the West would have to defend Taiwan to keep China 'sweet'.
