USSR
CCCP
URSS
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
Союз Советских Социалистических Республик
Unión de Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas
1922 - 2022
✮
In response to:
https://www.rt.com/russia/545831-could-ukraine-become-russias-new/
Interesting article. However, there seems to be some serious flaws in the author's arguments.
1- If there is some truth about the less heroic societies in which we ALL live, the argument cuts both ways, that is, Big Bear would also face a less 'heroic' society and the relative position of both rivals will be similar. Those willing to fight will be in an overall balance.
2- Technologies also cut both ways. The technological advances can also be applied to guerrilla warfare. Indeed, guerrilla warfare has the advantage of needing a lower level of technology. For example, NATO was essentially defeated by low tech and crude IED's that provided big returns for minimal costs.
3- One of the main factors in a prospective guerrilla war in Ukraine, a country with a long tradition of guerrilla warfare, will be the impossibility of controlling the borders and, therefore, the supplies of men and material for the guerrillas. Like in Afghanistan, a safe area, out of bounds from military operation (Pakistan), will drag the conflict to unbearable lengths and costs. A bleeding wound will be enough to bring down Big Bear. The guerrillas do not need to win.
4- The political, economic and social situation and, with it, the military one, can change. Once the invasion has taken place, people could take a while to react, as in many other conflicts, but they will react if their situation changes for the worst (as it happened in Kaz), and the chances are that it will change for the worst if economic and political sanctions from the West come into force. Something that, could even trigger revolts and revolutions inside Big Bear itself.
5- Migration and flight could be the first instinct, but it all will depend on the attitude of the West and its population. If the West denies migration rights, as many regimes in the ME have done with the Palestinians and others or if it organises voluntary armies among migrants, as they did in Pakistan, the guerrillas will have an inexhaustible manpower base.
6- An aggressive stance by NATO, with economic and military resources poured into the fight, the organisation and arming of guerrillas, could turn anyone into guerrilla 'heroes'. Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the tasting... but it is a risky tasting.
